Inflation at 4.6% and a 25bp rise priced for the May RBA meeting

1 May 2026

The interior of a vast empty banking hall, a coffered ceiling above a polished stone floor and one tall arched window at the far end throwing light down the room.

Fixed rates move before the RBA does. Swap rates reprice first and lenders do not wait for a decision to confirm what they have already priced, which is why a fixed rate can rise in a month the cash rate does not. Inside: why a rate lock is insurance rather than a bet, and the end-of-year position that changed on 1 July 2025 when interest on ATO debt stopped being deductible.